ONS - 'Not possible to quantify the overall impact of the Olympics'!
Further to the Olympicsboostsh*t report on Games Monitor the rise in GDP was declared to be 1% not 0.7%. When it announced the figures the BBC reported the ONS as saying that 'beyond the effect of ticket sales, it was hard to put an exact figure on the Olympic effect, although it cited increased hotel and restaurant activity in London as well as strength from employment agencies.' This last statement is interesting as it is reported there was a decline in tourism numbers and in hotel occupancy but this was made up for with a rise in room yields because prices had been jacked up in anticipation of a tourism feast. The Association of Leading Visitor Attractions (ALVA) had reported a plunge in visitors to attractions all over the UK during the summer, including the Olympics period.
The ONS makes a guarded statement about online retail sales where others were more outspoken about the decline. Retailers and restaurants were complaining at the start of the Games at the decline in customers and demanded TfL alter its transport advice and these impacts continued to be felt in particular areas like Greenwich and Leyton. The ONS stated that it had fixed Olympics ticket sales in the figures for this quarter even though the sales had actually occurred in previous months.
Statements from the ONS include a lot of possibles, mays, mights and 'no direct evidence':
*Employment agencies showed some strength in the quarter and it is possible that some of this strength was related to the Olympics. However, there was no direct evidence from survey respondents to support this
*Office administration: office administration was quite strong in the quarter but the evidence on any Olympic effect was mixed, with some respondents suggesting that it may have had an adverse effect, as opposed to explaining the strength
*Creative arts and entertainment activities: the arts and entertainment sector has been showing some strength for some time, with quite strong growth in the most recent quarter. There was some evidence from survey returns that output was higher in July and August because of the Olympics
*Accommodation: hotels showed greater activity in the quarter and this was one area where one might expect to see an Olympic effect, albeit mainly in London. There was some evidence from survey returns that output was higher in July and August because of the Olympics
*Food and beverage services: there was some strength in the food and drink sector and some evidence from survey returns that part of this might have been due to the Olympics
*Land transport: there was some strength in parts of the transport sector and some evidence from survey returns that this might have been due to the Olympics
*Retail: retail showed some strength in the quarter but there was very little evidence of any significant Olympic effect. Indeed there was some feedback from online retailers that sales were lower as consumers watched the Olympics instead of shopping online
*Motion picture, video and TV programme production: the data here were quite weak for the quarter and there was some evidence from survey respondents to support this weakness - 'people watching the Olympics instead'
The ONS provided further information in a separate publication where for example it referred to anecdotal evidence of 'longer summer closures in Autust 2012' in the manufacturing sector.
*It was estimated that manufacturing output fell by 1.1 per cent between July and August and production output by 0.5 per cent over the same period. There was some anecdotal evidence that some manufacturing businesses (particularly in the transport equipment industries) had longer summer closures in August 2012, or that closures were held later than in previous years so they affected August exclusively instead of being spread across July and August. As the figures suggest there was little evidence that the Olympics and Paralympics had an impact on production or manufacturing unless linked to the summer closures.
Little evidence, lots of anecdotes, muddy waters!
Submitted by Julian Cheyne on Tue, 30/10/2012 - 16:00.